Monday, March 14, 2011

Being Right or Making Money






While out of work, Charlie Sheen is winning. There is so much to learn from him. Here are 7 things he taught me about living frugally.


When Un-Employed, Downsize


Don't pay someone to do something you can do yourself. Sure, some people may say that his publicist quit after outrageous comments in interviews. Maybe it was the fallout from erratic behavior. Or maybe, Charlie just realized he needed to get smarter with his cash. Newly unemployed, Charlie can be his own publicist and save all that money he was using on Stan Rosenfield. If you're out of work, learn from Charlie. Who needs an electrician? You can re-wire your own lighting. Tire center to fix your brakes? Get a couple of loaner books from the library and fix them yourself. You're learning a trade, building your resume, and saving money! If Charlie doesn't go back to work as an actor, he can try his hands in a new trade as a publicist. This is what's referred to as “bi-winning.”


Have a Winning Attitude


Just because we're in a downsizing economy, facing higher food and oil prices, under-employment and crumbling local governments, it doesn't mean you won't be able to be hired at the job you're applying to. Stop reading the news for awhile if it starts getting you down. Give yourself a tiger-blood, Adonis DNA, pep-talk before hitting the interview. If you can't afford to celebrate with champagne, or even beer, drink up that milk with gusto. Think of all the delicious fortifying nutrients your body is getting. Clip coupons with panache. Serve leftovers with style. To do frugal living the Sheen way, it's all about attitude.


Surround Yourself with Loved Ones


Let's get this out right now: No, you cannot have your own goddesses to cheer you up. Only Charlie Sheen can do that. However, you can surround yourself with people who love you for free. In fact, invite as many free friends as you can over to your house and celebrate how lucky you are to have what really matters in life: relationships. Bonus: Make it a pot luck and you get a cheap meal as well.


Fed staff members, such as Brian Sack, the New York Fed official in charge of carrying out the bond buying, have argued the total amount, or stock, of securities the Fed has announced it will make has more impact on longer-term interest rates than the timing of those purchases. That’s a view now held by several members on the Federal Open Market Committee, including the chairman.


“We learned in the first quarter of last year, when we ended our previous program, that the markets had anticipated that adequately, and we didn’t see any major impact on interest rates,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee during his March 1 semiannual monetary-policy testimony. “It’s really the total amount of holdings, rather than the flow of new purchases, that affects the level of interest rates.”


Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen supported that perspective, saying at a monetary policy forum in New York last week that “the stock view won out over the flow view.”



The idea that Brian Sack, a 40-year-old economist with a PhD from MIT, is winning the day in the argument of "stocks over flows" is somewhat troubling to me.  MIT is a quantitative shop, home to some very brilliant people, but how markets will actually respond is another specialty altogether, one that requires a bit of on-the-street experience.  Markets have a bad habit of not being logical, not fitting neatly into tidy formulas, and ignoring things like 'stocks and flows.'


I'll go even further. I'll take the other side of that bet and opine that the flows are much more important than the stocks, because it is the flows that support the continued budget deficits of the US government — which, it should be noted, will still be with us each and every month long after June 2011.  Those deficits are baked into the cake and will require in excess of $125 billion in new Treasury sales each and every month.


Who will buy all the Treasury bonds after the Fed steps aside?  That is unclear.  If there are not enough buyers at these artificially inflated prices, then the price will have to fall until sufficient buyers can be found.  Falling bond prices are at the other side of the financial see-saw from rising bond yields; one goes down while the other goes up, and the Fed has been pressing firmly down on yields for a while via the QE II program.  When that's over, pressure will be reduced and yields will rise.


So what to do? For those concerned enough about this possible scenario to consider taking action, please see Part II of this article (free executive summary; paid enrollment required to access). In it, I predict the extent to which stocks, commodities, Treasury bonds and precious metals prices may be impacted in the near term.  I also detail the key indicators to look out for in order to determine if and when this scenario is unfolding - as well as recommended strategies to preserve capital during this corrective phase.


Click here to access Part II. 





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