Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Making Money Marketing



Since Twitter launched promoted tweets, many wondered how the advertising world would embrace one of Twitter’s attempts at becoming profitable.


According to the Wall Street Journal, “Twitter Inc.’s foray into advertising is receiving mixed reviews among marketers, underscoring the challenges of turning the popular micro-blogging service into a highly profitable enterprise.”


Further, the story indicates that right now, those in advertising and marketing feel advertising via Twitter is little more than “experiment.”


According to the story, some points of interest concerning Twitter’s money-making strategy are as follows:



  • Promoted tweets via Twitter are sold for $100,000 or more.

  • Many in advertising and marketing find it more cost effective to simply establish a Twitter account for free and target customers as they wish.

  • 80% of the companies that bought a promoted trend once, came back for more.

  • To be successful, better analytics and more targeted options may be needed to reign in marketers.

  • Twitter COO Dick Costolo indicates 5% of people that see Twitter ads interact with them

  • Early adopters, Best Buy and Pepsi, have chosen to no longer participate in the purchase of advertising on Twitter.


What do you think of promoted tweets and advertising via Twitter?  Have you interacted with a Twitter ad?  What would make you more likely to do so?




According to a new Experian Marketing Services report, transactional emails that include relevant and related products and services have 20%  higher transaction rates than those without.


Blown away, aren’t you? Okay, probably not. It’s no big marketing secret that suggestive selling and cross-promotions work, so why doesn’t everybody do it?


Let’s go back to basics. A transactional email is one that a customer expects. Could be an order confirmation, a shipping notice or information on returns and exchanges. Experian analyzed more than 1,800 emails of this type that were sent through their CheetahMail system and found that more than 100% of the time (how is that possible?) these emails are opened by the recipient. You won’t find anywhere near that kind of open rate on bulk emails.


Once you’ve got customers opening the email, it’s time to convert them and this is where many companies fail. Experian says that’s a lot of money left on the table. Here are the numbers:



“Compared with standard bulk mailings, the average revenue per email is two to five times greater and can be up to six times greater than the all-industry average of $0.13. Experian CheetahMail’s analysis showed an average revenue per email for order confirmations of $0.75, while shipping confirmations and returns/exchanges pulled $0.53 and $0.80, respectively.”


Making the most of your transactional emails doesn’t have to mean promoting another product. Experian says that transactional emails that included links to social media sites had 55% higher click rates than emails with no click-through opportunities.


The only place that failed in the study was in the area of incentivizing future purchases. Oddly, emails without this kind of incentive did better than those that had them. Looking at my own behavior, I’d say this is because a “future purchase” email would either get filed away in my coupon folder or deleted if I had no intention of buying again.


The takeaway here is that companies must optimize every opportunity they have to engage with a customer. Emails need to branded to match the company website. Social media links should be prominent in all emails, especially transactional ones and ideally, personalized services and add-ons should be included in every order or shipping email.


This may sound like marketing 101, but I can’t tell you how many transactional emails I receive in a week that miss out on all of these points. On the other hand, there is one company I buy from that has a transactional email so memorable, I actually tell people about it and that’s CD Baby. Their order confirmation includes a wild story about how my CD has been taken off the shelf by a person wearing sterilized gloves, it was polished and inspected by 50 employees then everyone gathered around, lit a candle and watched in awe as it was packed, then they had a parade while delivering it to the post office where the entire town of Portland waved and said “Bon Voyage!” Silly, yes. But everyone who gets that confirmation remembers it and it effects their decision to buy from CD Baby again.


Lastly, don’t forget to say thank you to your customers when you confirm their order. It’s a simple thing but it makes a big difference.


Click here to get the full report free from Experian Marketing Services.


Social Media Monitoring in Just 60-Seconds. Guaranteed!




3DS Super Monkey Ball out next year 3DS <b>News</b> - Page 1 | Eurogamer.net

Read our 3DS news of 3DS Super Monkey Ball out next year.

Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch | iLounge <b>News</b>

iLounge news discussing the Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch. Find more Apps + Games news from leading independent iPod, iPhone, and iPad site.

Murata Seisakusho Robot Learns New Skill « Akihabara <b>News</b>

To pursue its growth Akihabara News is seeking for several more editors via an intership program for 6 to 9 months. Please send us a mail @ jobs@akihabaranews.com. Message. We are moving away from Feedburner, please update your RSS ...


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3DS Super Monkey Ball out next year 3DS <b>News</b> - Page 1 | Eurogamer.net

Read our 3DS news of 3DS Super Monkey Ball out next year.

Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch | iLounge <b>News</b>

iLounge news discussing the Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch. Find more Apps + Games news from leading independent iPod, iPhone, and iPad site.

Murata Seisakusho Robot Learns New Skill « Akihabara <b>News</b>

To pursue its growth Akihabara News is seeking for several more editors via an intership program for 6 to 9 months. Please send us a mail @ jobs@akihabaranews.com. Message. We are moving away from Feedburner, please update your RSS ...


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Since Twitter launched promoted tweets, many wondered how the advertising world would embrace one of Twitter’s attempts at becoming profitable.


According to the Wall Street Journal, “Twitter Inc.’s foray into advertising is receiving mixed reviews among marketers, underscoring the challenges of turning the popular micro-blogging service into a highly profitable enterprise.”


Further, the story indicates that right now, those in advertising and marketing feel advertising via Twitter is little more than “experiment.”


According to the story, some points of interest concerning Twitter’s money-making strategy are as follows:



  • Promoted tweets via Twitter are sold for $100,000 or more.

  • Many in advertising and marketing find it more cost effective to simply establish a Twitter account for free and target customers as they wish.

  • 80% of the companies that bought a promoted trend once, came back for more.

  • To be successful, better analytics and more targeted options may be needed to reign in marketers.

  • Twitter COO Dick Costolo indicates 5% of people that see Twitter ads interact with them

  • Early adopters, Best Buy and Pepsi, have chosen to no longer participate in the purchase of advertising on Twitter.


What do you think of promoted tweets and advertising via Twitter?  Have you interacted with a Twitter ad?  What would make you more likely to do so?




According to a new Experian Marketing Services report, transactional emails that include relevant and related products and services have 20%  higher transaction rates than those without.


Blown away, aren’t you? Okay, probably not. It’s no big marketing secret that suggestive selling and cross-promotions work, so why doesn’t everybody do it?


Let’s go back to basics. A transactional email is one that a customer expects. Could be an order confirmation, a shipping notice or information on returns and exchanges. Experian analyzed more than 1,800 emails of this type that were sent through their CheetahMail system and found that more than 100% of the time (how is that possible?) these emails are opened by the recipient. You won’t find anywhere near that kind of open rate on bulk emails.


Once you’ve got customers opening the email, it’s time to convert them and this is where many companies fail. Experian says that’s a lot of money left on the table. Here are the numbers:



“Compared with standard bulk mailings, the average revenue per email is two to five times greater and can be up to six times greater than the all-industry average of $0.13. Experian CheetahMail’s analysis showed an average revenue per email for order confirmations of $0.75, while shipping confirmations and returns/exchanges pulled $0.53 and $0.80, respectively.”


Making the most of your transactional emails doesn’t have to mean promoting another product. Experian says that transactional emails that included links to social media sites had 55% higher click rates than emails with no click-through opportunities.


The only place that failed in the study was in the area of incentivizing future purchases. Oddly, emails without this kind of incentive did better than those that had them. Looking at my own behavior, I’d say this is because a “future purchase” email would either get filed away in my coupon folder or deleted if I had no intention of buying again.


The takeaway here is that companies must optimize every opportunity they have to engage with a customer. Emails need to branded to match the company website. Social media links should be prominent in all emails, especially transactional ones and ideally, personalized services and add-ons should be included in every order or shipping email.


This may sound like marketing 101, but I can’t tell you how many transactional emails I receive in a week that miss out on all of these points. On the other hand, there is one company I buy from that has a transactional email so memorable, I actually tell people about it and that’s CD Baby. Their order confirmation includes a wild story about how my CD has been taken off the shelf by a person wearing sterilized gloves, it was polished and inspected by 50 employees then everyone gathered around, lit a candle and watched in awe as it was packed, then they had a parade while delivering it to the post office where the entire town of Portland waved and said “Bon Voyage!” Silly, yes. But everyone who gets that confirmation remembers it and it effects their decision to buy from CD Baby again.


Lastly, don’t forget to say thank you to your customers when you confirm their order. It’s a simple thing but it makes a big difference.


Click here to get the full report free from Experian Marketing Services.


Social Media Monitoring in Just 60-Seconds. Guaranteed!




benchcraft company scam

3DS Super Monkey Ball out next year 3DS <b>News</b> - Page 1 | Eurogamer.net

Read our 3DS news of 3DS Super Monkey Ball out next year.

Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch | iLounge <b>News</b>

iLounge news discussing the Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch. Find more Apps + Games news from leading independent iPod, iPhone, and iPad site.

Murata Seisakusho Robot Learns New Skill « Akihabara <b>News</b>

To pursue its growth Akihabara News is seeking for several more editors via an intership program for 6 to 9 months. Please send us a mail @ jobs@akihabaranews.com. Message. We are moving away from Feedburner, please update your RSS ...


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3DS Super Monkey Ball out next year 3DS <b>News</b> - Page 1 | Eurogamer.net

Read our 3DS news of 3DS Super Monkey Ball out next year.

Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch | iLounge <b>News</b>

iLounge news discussing the Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch. Find more Apps + Games news from leading independent iPod, iPhone, and iPad site.

Murata Seisakusho Robot Learns New Skill « Akihabara <b>News</b>

To pursue its growth Akihabara News is seeking for several more editors via an intership program for 6 to 9 months. Please send us a mail @ jobs@akihabaranews.com. Message. We are moving away from Feedburner, please update your RSS ...


benchcraft company scam bench craft company rip off

3DS Super Monkey Ball out next year 3DS <b>News</b> - Page 1 | Eurogamer.net

Read our 3DS news of 3DS Super Monkey Ball out next year.

Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch | iLounge <b>News</b>

iLounge news discussing the Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch. Find more Apps + Games news from leading independent iPod, iPhone, and iPad site.

Murata Seisakusho Robot Learns New Skill « Akihabara <b>News</b>

To pursue its growth Akihabara News is seeking for several more editors via an intership program for 6 to 9 months. Please send us a mail @ jobs@akihabaranews.com. Message. We are moving away from Feedburner, please update your RSS ...


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Friday, September 24, 2010

personal financeonline personal finance



mercy big white booty

Expats talks <b>news</b> over booze - RT

This week, Moscow's expats share their impressions of the stories that made the news, including the Arctic Forum, Pakistan's floods and the Art Moscow Fair.

Diane Sawyer: ABC World <b>News</b> Goes Home: Looking for What Works in <b>...</b>

We at ABC's World News are heading out to search for innovative ideas that are helping turn the economy around. Real change is often born out of a simple act. And one ripple can lead to a powerful transformation.

Middle East Countries Race for Nuclear Power

(Sept. 24) -- Nations in the Middle East, rich in oil, natural gas and volatile politics, are pursuing nuclear power with a headlong vigor that gives some analysts pause.


Expats talks <b>news</b> over booze - RT

This week, Moscow's expats share their impressions of the stories that made the news, including the Arctic Forum, Pakistan's floods and the Art Moscow Fair.

Diane Sawyer: ABC World <b>News</b> Goes Home: Looking for What Works in <b>...</b>

We at ABC's World News are heading out to search for innovative ideas that are helping turn the economy around. Real change is often born out of a simple act. And one ripple can lead to a powerful transformation.

Middle East Countries Race for Nuclear Power

(Sept. 24) -- Nations in the Middle East, rich in oil, natural gas and volatile politics, are pursuing nuclear power with a headlong vigor that gives some analysts pause.


big white booty

Expats talks <b>news</b> over booze - RT

This week, Moscow's expats share their impressions of the stories that made the news, including the Arctic Forum, Pakistan's floods and the Art Moscow Fair.

Diane Sawyer: ABC World <b>News</b> Goes Home: Looking for What Works in <b>...</b>

We at ABC's World News are heading out to search for innovative ideas that are helping turn the economy around. Real change is often born out of a simple act. And one ripple can lead to a powerful transformation.

Middle East Countries Race for Nuclear Power

(Sept. 24) -- Nations in the Middle East, rich in oil, natural gas and volatile politics, are pursuing nuclear power with a headlong vigor that gives some analysts pause.




































managing personal finances





Are you a fan of the GTD personal productivity system? Well if you like "Getting Things Done," here's GFD, Getting Finances Done, which shows you how to map David Allen's same principals to managing your personal finance and achieving your financial goals.



Applying GTD principles to your personal finances - Part 1 [Getting Finances Done]










Are you a fan of the GTD personal productivity system? Well if you like "Getting Things Done," here's GFD, Getting Finances Done, which shows you how to map David Allen's same principals to managing your personal finance and achieving your financial goals.



Applying GTD principles to your personal finances - Part 1 [Getting Finances Done]








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Bad <b>news</b> for green technology | Watts Up With That?

Super magnet production has also been shipped over to China http://www.chinamagnet.in/i-News-229212/The-development-and-applications-of-Rare-Earth-Permanent-Magnetic-Materials-244616.html. Over the last 10 to 20 years companies have ...

Small Business <b>News</b>: An Owner&#39;s Manual

If only there were an owner's manual that came with your small business telling you what works, what doesn't and what are the best ways to move ahead in your.

BREAKING <b>NEWS</b>: Lindsay Lohan Ordered Back To Jail; Bail Revoked <b>...</b>

9:08 am PST: The judge has thrown the book at Lindsay. Her bail was revoked. She was handcuffed and taken into custody. A probation hearing was set for October 22nd. Lindsay appeared stunned. 8:22 am PDT: Lindsay has entered the ...


Bad <b>news</b> for green technology | Watts Up With That?

Super magnet production has also been shipped over to China http://www.chinamagnet.in/i-News-229212/The-development-and-applications-of-Rare-Earth-Permanent-Magnetic-Materials-244616.html. Over the last 10 to 20 years companies have ...

Small Business <b>News</b>: An Owner&#39;s Manual

If only there were an owner's manual that came with your small business telling you what works, what doesn't and what are the best ways to move ahead in your.

BREAKING <b>NEWS</b>: Lindsay Lohan Ordered Back To Jail; Bail Revoked <b>...</b>

9:08 am PST: The judge has thrown the book at Lindsay. Her bail was revoked. She was handcuffed and taken into custody. A probation hearing was set for October 22nd. Lindsay appeared stunned. 8:22 am PDT: Lindsay has entered the ...


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Bad <b>news</b> for green technology | Watts Up With That?

Super magnet production has also been shipped over to China http://www.chinamagnet.in/i-News-229212/The-development-and-applications-of-Rare-Earth-Permanent-Magnetic-Materials-244616.html. Over the last 10 to 20 years companies have ...

Small Business <b>News</b>: An Owner&#39;s Manual

If only there were an owner's manual that came with your small business telling you what works, what doesn't and what are the best ways to move ahead in your.

BREAKING <b>NEWS</b>: Lindsay Lohan Ordered Back To Jail; Bail Revoked <b>...</b>

9:08 am PST: The judge has thrown the book at Lindsay. Her bail was revoked. She was handcuffed and taken into custody. A probation hearing was set for October 22nd. Lindsay appeared stunned. 8:22 am PDT: Lindsay has entered the ...



MABUHAY ALLIANCE HOST THE 6TH ANNUAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE by mabuhayalliance







MABUHAY ALLIANCE HOST THE 6TH ANNUAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE by mabuhayalliance






























Thursday, September 23, 2010

personal finance manager


Comments


Subscribe to comments for this post OR Subscribe to comments for all ReadWriteWeb posts










  1. Wow, I just made money. My home value shot up $70k. Mint single-handedly lifts the US out of the recession with this move. Seriously, most real-estate people I've talked with don't agree with Zillows home value calculations. Personally, I'm a fan of Zillow but they value my home much much higher than the previous site Mint used to calculate these values. Moral of the story? Don't worry about your home's value until you sell. Then and only then will you know the true value of your home, at least on that day.



    Posted by: Joel Price |
    September 22, 2010 8:22 AM




















  2. Words of wisdom Joel, words of wisdom!



    Posted by: sasha |
    September 22, 2010 10:30 AM























  3. If you walked into the average bookstore, you'd think that women rule the roost when it comes to personal finance. From Suze Orman's now-classic Women and Money to the more recent (and more colorfully titled) Bitches on a Budget, there's no shortage of do-it-yourself financial advice tailored to women.



    Apparently, though, when women make the momentous move from self-help to seeking professional advice about investing and retirement, things go rapidly downhill. A recent study by the Boston Consulting Group revealed that women perceived themselves as receiving wealth management services at a level of quality that is inferior to that received by their male counterparts.



    According to the study, women are the key decision-makers when it comes to 27% of the wealth worldwide: that's $20 trillion! But despite the massive chunk of power they wield, 55% of the women surveyed in the study said they felt their wealth manager could do a better job of advising them. Almost a quarter of the respondents said private banks needed "significant improvement" in the services they offer to women.



    "The dissatisfaction stems from the unshakable perception that men get more attention, better advice, and sometimes even better terms and deals," according to study co-author Peter Damisch. "We heard this sense of subordination time and time again in our interviews."



    This perceived disparity in service arose from several key disconnects in the relationships and communications between women and their financial advisers. Manisha Thakor, Chartered Financial Analyst and women's financial literacy advocate, offers some steps savvy female investors can take to avoid being under-served by their wealth managers and investment advisers:



    1. Find your adviser and get your financial education from women-run resources.




    The financial services industry is dominated by males and therefore the "DNA is structured around the male experience," Thakor explains, adding that she sees many firms making an effort to change this. Most financial advisers are men, who may not inherently understand the whole-life nature of the average woman's financial plans and needs. They also may have very different communication styles than their women clients.



    Thakor recommends women use women-created resources like LearnVest and DailyWorth to educate themselves in order to avoid the intimidation factor when talking about investment products with their advisers. She also encourages women to consult Garrett Planning Network, founded by Certified Financial Planner Sheryl Garrett, to locate a local certified financial planner who works on an hourly-fee-only basis. Taking these steps, Thakor explains, may alleviate the concern expressed by many women in the BCG study that they were not being taken seriously or talked to on the same level as male clients by their financial advisers.



    2. Expressly state your ideal career trajectory, then ask how you should alter your investment plans accordingly.



    In the BCG study, women stated that their investment advisers fundamentally misunderstood what was actually important to them, and recommended a too-narrow range of inappropriate investment vehicles as a result. Many said their advisers assumed they had a lower risk tolerance than they actually did, or that their advisers focused on short-term results and disregarded their long-term goals, which often included time out to care for a child or parent.



    Thakor offers women a script of sorts to remedy this communication disconnect. "Go in and say: "I want to be a mom and I may take X amount of time out of the work force," she advises. Then ask, "How do we adjust how much I need to save and how I should invest to compensate for this?"



    3. Start saving early.


    Thursday Theatre <b>News</b>: Ghost The Musical, Pet Shop Boys, London&#39;s <b>...</b>

    Firstly, no groans about the Christmas news, please. If we didn't tell you what London's brilliant theatres have planned for this December, what would you have to get excited about as the nights start drawing in? ...

    &#39;Fox <b>News</b> Sunday&#39; to Host Kentucky Senate Debate - NYTimes.com

    Jack Conway, Kentucky's attorney general and the Democratic candidate for Senate, and Rand Paul, the Republican nominee, have agreed to a live debate on "Fox News Sunday" on Oct. 3.

    <b>News</b> Anchor Barbie: &#39;A flair for journalism -- and power pink <b>...</b>

    Astronaut Barbie, Newborn Baby Doctor Barbie and Rock Star Barbie, get ready to answer some tough questions asked by journalist Barbie. The 125th -- and newest -- career path for Mattel's 51-year-old doll is news anchor, and she's ...


    robert shumake

    Thursday Theatre <b>News</b>: Ghost The Musical, Pet Shop Boys, London&#39;s <b>...</b>

    Firstly, no groans about the Christmas news, please. If we didn't tell you what London's brilliant theatres have planned for this December, what would you have to get excited about as the nights start drawing in? ...

    &#39;Fox <b>News</b> Sunday&#39; to Host Kentucky Senate Debate - NYTimes.com

    Jack Conway, Kentucky's attorney general and the Democratic candidate for Senate, and Rand Paul, the Republican nominee, have agreed to a live debate on "Fox News Sunday" on Oct. 3.

    <b>News</b> Anchor Barbie: &#39;A flair for journalism -- and power pink <b>...</b>

    Astronaut Barbie, Newborn Baby Doctor Barbie and Rock Star Barbie, get ready to answer some tough questions asked by journalist Barbie. The 125th -- and newest -- career path for Mattel's 51-year-old doll is news anchor, and she's ...



    Comments


    Subscribe to comments for this post OR Subscribe to comments for all ReadWriteWeb posts










    1. Wow, I just made money. My home value shot up $70k. Mint single-handedly lifts the US out of the recession with this move. Seriously, most real-estate people I've talked with don't agree with Zillows home value calculations. Personally, I'm a fan of Zillow but they value my home much much higher than the previous site Mint used to calculate these values. Moral of the story? Don't worry about your home's value until you sell. Then and only then will you know the true value of your home, at least on that day.



      Posted by: Joel Price |
      September 22, 2010 8:22 AM




















    2. Words of wisdom Joel, words of wisdom!



      Posted by: sasha |
      September 22, 2010 10:30 AM























    3. If you walked into the average bookstore, you'd think that women rule the roost when it comes to personal finance. From Suze Orman's now-classic Women and Money to the more recent (and more colorfully titled) Bitches on a Budget, there's no shortage of do-it-yourself financial advice tailored to women.



      Apparently, though, when women make the momentous move from self-help to seeking professional advice about investing and retirement, things go rapidly downhill. A recent study by the Boston Consulting Group revealed that women perceived themselves as receiving wealth management services at a level of quality that is inferior to that received by their male counterparts.



      According to the study, women are the key decision-makers when it comes to 27% of the wealth worldwide: that's $20 trillion! But despite the massive chunk of power they wield, 55% of the women surveyed in the study said they felt their wealth manager could do a better job of advising them. Almost a quarter of the respondents said private banks needed "significant improvement" in the services they offer to women.



      "The dissatisfaction stems from the unshakable perception that men get more attention, better advice, and sometimes even better terms and deals," according to study co-author Peter Damisch. "We heard this sense of subordination time and time again in our interviews."



      This perceived disparity in service arose from several key disconnects in the relationships and communications between women and their financial advisers. Manisha Thakor, Chartered Financial Analyst and women's financial literacy advocate, offers some steps savvy female investors can take to avoid being under-served by their wealth managers and investment advisers:



      1. Find your adviser and get your financial education from women-run resources.




      The financial services industry is dominated by males and therefore the "DNA is structured around the male experience," Thakor explains, adding that she sees many firms making an effort to change this. Most financial advisers are men, who may not inherently understand the whole-life nature of the average woman's financial plans and needs. They also may have very different communication styles than their women clients.



      Thakor recommends women use women-created resources like LearnVest and DailyWorth to educate themselves in order to avoid the intimidation factor when talking about investment products with their advisers. She also encourages women to consult Garrett Planning Network, founded by Certified Financial Planner Sheryl Garrett, to locate a local certified financial planner who works on an hourly-fee-only basis. Taking these steps, Thakor explains, may alleviate the concern expressed by many women in the BCG study that they were not being taken seriously or talked to on the same level as male clients by their financial advisers.



      2. Expressly state your ideal career trajectory, then ask how you should alter your investment plans accordingly.



      In the BCG study, women stated that their investment advisers fundamentally misunderstood what was actually important to them, and recommended a too-narrow range of inappropriate investment vehicles as a result. Many said their advisers assumed they had a lower risk tolerance than they actually did, or that their advisers focused on short-term results and disregarded their long-term goals, which often included time out to care for a child or parent.



      Thakor offers women a script of sorts to remedy this communication disconnect. "Go in and say: "I want to be a mom and I may take X amount of time out of the work force," she advises. Then ask, "How do we adjust how much I need to save and how I should invest to compensate for this?"



      3. Start saving early.



      'The election of Obama would, at a stroke, refresh our country's spirit' by Renegade98


      robert shumake

      Thursday Theatre <b>News</b>: Ghost The Musical, Pet Shop Boys, London&#39;s <b>...</b>

      Firstly, no groans about the Christmas news, please. If we didn't tell you what London's brilliant theatres have planned for this December, what would you have to get excited about as the nights start drawing in? ...

      &#39;Fox <b>News</b> Sunday&#39; to Host Kentucky Senate Debate - NYTimes.com

      Jack Conway, Kentucky's attorney general and the Democratic candidate for Senate, and Rand Paul, the Republican nominee, have agreed to a live debate on "Fox News Sunday" on Oct. 3.

      <b>News</b> Anchor Barbie: &#39;A flair for journalism -- and power pink <b>...</b>

      Astronaut Barbie, Newborn Baby Doctor Barbie and Rock Star Barbie, get ready to answer some tough questions asked by journalist Barbie. The 125th -- and newest -- career path for Mattel's 51-year-old doll is news anchor, and she's ...


      robert shumake

      Thursday Theatre <b>News</b>: Ghost The Musical, Pet Shop Boys, London&#39;s <b>...</b>

      Firstly, no groans about the Christmas news, please. If we didn't tell you what London's brilliant theatres have planned for this December, what would you have to get excited about as the nights start drawing in? ...

      &#39;Fox <b>News</b> Sunday&#39; to Host Kentucky Senate Debate - NYTimes.com

      Jack Conway, Kentucky's attorney general and the Democratic candidate for Senate, and Rand Paul, the Republican nominee, have agreed to a live debate on "Fox News Sunday" on Oct. 3.

      <b>News</b> Anchor Barbie: &#39;A flair for journalism -- and power pink <b>...</b>

      Astronaut Barbie, Newborn Baby Doctor Barbie and Rock Star Barbie, get ready to answer some tough questions asked by journalist Barbie. The 125th -- and newest -- career path for Mattel's 51-year-old doll is news anchor, and she's ...

















Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Stock Making Money



Biotech, people, Layoffs


ZymoGenetics Will Be Missed. How Seattle Biotech Can Recover and Thrive




Stewart Lyman 9/21/10

I agree with Carl Weissman’s recent Xconomy column about the ZymoGenetics acquisition when he says that Seattle needs to be a place where biotech startups thrive. Unfortunately, his column didn’t put forth any novel solutions for making this happen (I know this wasn’t his point in writing the article). I am also in agreement that hand wringing doesn’t help ease the loss, but a moment of reflection here is certainly called for. I will admit to being saddened by the Bristol-Myers Squibb acquisition of ZymoGenetics and the potential loss of some 300 plus jobs from the local biotech scene. I felt just as bad (actually, worse, being a scientist myself) when their research group was previously shut down and the scientists were let go. I haven’t heard anyone suggest that the latest biotech buyouts (Trubion Pharmaceuticals and ZymoGenetics) are harbingers of doom, though they may seem that way to those who lose their jobs. However, it is naïve to think that they won’t have a negative impact in the short term. Ted’s comment in response to Carl’s piece did a fine job of capturing the painful impact that may await many of those employees.


Biotech advances flow from the well of scientific discovery. Individuals who haven’t worked in a biotech setting don’t always grasp the synergistic benefits of putting together a research team that recombines individual talents to innovate fantastic discoveries that lead to new drugs. This doesn’t happen often in the industry and is a rare and valuable thing. Many of us who competed against ZymoGenetics over the years would acknowledge that they had assembled such a team. ZymoGenetics own website points out that products that they discovered or developed (and which are currently marketed by other companies) have combined yearly sales of over $3 billion. Another example: look at the articles that have been written chronicling how Roche has bent over backwards not to perturb the research culture of the recently acquired Genentech. They recognize their valuable investment and the need to protect innovation. They are hopeful that the Genentech group will continue to produce novel drugs at their industry-leading pace. Making money investing in biotech, whether as a VC or as a stock market investor, is certainly very demanding. However, actually developing a novel drug and getting it on the market is significantly more difficult. There are numerous examples of companies that have been acquired (thereby returning money to their investors) but the drugs that they were purchased for didn’t pan out.


A quick look at the WaBio website shows only about 33 job openings at local biotech companies, with about an equal number of jobs listed for academic and other institutions. Since 2002, when Amgen bought Immunex, there have been over 3,200 layoffs at local biotech companies (not including any upcoming layoffs at ZymoGenetics or Trubion), and I would wager that a lot of these folks were unable to find employment locally. Taking their skills elsewhere did not benefit us here in Seattle. The loss of ZymoGenetics may indeed lead to new companies being formed by those with an entrepreneurial spirit, as Carl suggested. However, it will take years (if ever) for these putative new companies to employ the number of individuals who typically are let go in these acquisitions. This also assumes that these companies get VC or other financial backing, which in the current economic climate is far from guaranteed. Also, Carl suggests that acquisitions recycle liquidity to investors, but how many of those investors are actually here in Seattle? Won’t most of that money go to support ventures (and not necessarily biotech) in other parts of the U.S. and, indeed, the world?


Many of us who work in the industry use the term “biotech anchor tenant”, but the phrase is often employed without benefit of a clear definition. Given that this term may mean different things to different people, I will offer one. A biotech anchor tenant for a city or a region, to my mind, is a company that meets two general criteria: (1) it is a near constant source of at least some jobs, owing to it’s relatively large size, rate of employee turnover, growth rate, or combination of these factors, and (2) is stable in the region and is not likely to close, relocate, or be acquired. This second criteria is getting harder and harder to meet. Even Big Pharma has closed down a number of its research facilities in the past year, with significant negative effects on the communities involved. For example, Pfizer abandoned its New London, CT research campus (and moved 1,400 jobs) leaving the town devastated. And even Big Biotech (e.g. Genentech), as we now know, was not too big to be acquired. Amgen’s Helix campus here in Seattle would meet this general definition as an anchor tenant, but more significantly, I would argue that Dendreon …Next Page »



Stewart Lyman is Owner and Manager of Lyman BioPharma Consulting LLC in Seattle.



I'm thrilled at the response to my previous blog post on America's need for 401(k) reform. The bad news is that big business has already developed a strategy to kill reform -- by intimidating the rank and file into lobbying against it. And it's perfectly legal.



While President Obama justifiably criticized the Supreme Court's Citizen United ruling that pretty much removes the limits from campaign spending in advertising, the real scandal on Capitol Hill isn't bankrolling corrupt candidates but creating a "fake citizens lobby" that convinces elected officials to vote the wrong way. It's perfectly legal for big business to pressure employees to lobby against reform that would help employees -- presumably employing the "spin" that reform is a job killer.



The group that's behind this tactic is one you've probably never heard of, BIPAC, a coalition of business owners and associations. When it comes to corporate skulduggery, you can't get much more lowlife than the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), one of BIPAC's leading members. NAM has fought against regulating derivatives because doing so "could hinder job creation for manufacturing" -- gee, which factories manufacture derivatives? NAM has also demanded the overhaul of the Family and Medical Leave Act because employees abuse it, and argued that employees who suffer from repetitive stress injuries such as carpal tunnel syndrome aren't really disabled.



There's a good chance that a "fake grass-roots effort" orchestrated by NAM helped convince members of Congress to drop their support for the Employee Free Choice Act, which lets workers opt for unionization simply by signing cards rather than through secret ballot elections. When I went to the page on a website that BIPAC created displaying sample campaigns, I saw a link where employees of NAM's member companies are encouraged to "Tell Members of Congress to Oppose the 'Employee FORCED Choice Act." Technically speaking, businesses can't punish employees who refuse to go along with this effort but in these tough economic times, I wouldn't be surprised if employees are likely to do what they're told rather than risk their job security.



Not surprisingly, NAM is a member of an employer group whose purpose is to fight any reform of 401(k) plans called The Coalition on Employee Retirement Benefits (CERB). Remember Enron? One of its most despicable practices was matching employees 401(k) contributions with company stock, which turns into "play money" if the company goes under. It's very likely that CERB's lobbying efforts watered down the Pension Security Act, which merely allows workers to sell company stock within three years of receiving it rather than limiting it in 401(k) accounts or prohibiting it altogether. As I pointed out in my book, "America, Welcome to the Poorhouse," in a letter to members of the Senate Finance Committee, CERB hints that if Congress is too hard on employers they might stop making 401(k) contributions altogether: " employers are not allowed to meet the legitimate business of encouraging employee ownership...they are likely to reduce or eliminate matching contributions."



How do we get members of Congress to work for the taxpayers who pay their salaries, as opposed to the business lobby? My thinking is that the chance of passing genuine campaign reform legislation is slim -- especially since Congress would have to vote for it. Instead we should create a citizens lobby, comprised of blue and white collar Americans who are watching their American dream turn into a nightmare, whether we're talking about higher medical co-pays, or unaffordable mortgages. Even when it comes to job shortages, most of us are "all in this financial stress together" -- whether we're affected by blue-collar factory jobs that have been outsourced to China or radiology/engineering jobs that have been off-shored to India.



As former SEIU President Andy Stern told me, "Team USA is in trouble. We don't have a plan. Let's grow up, people. This is a global economic war. We need to shake off complacency and get out of our self-analytical malaise." Forget about this Tea Party nonsense, we need a genuine new American revolution against the business lobby and those in Washington who do its bidding.








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Biotech, people, Layoffs


ZymoGenetics Will Be Missed. How Seattle Biotech Can Recover and Thrive




Stewart Lyman 9/21/10

I agree with Carl Weissman’s recent Xconomy column about the ZymoGenetics acquisition when he says that Seattle needs to be a place where biotech startups thrive. Unfortunately, his column didn’t put forth any novel solutions for making this happen (I know this wasn’t his point in writing the article). I am also in agreement that hand wringing doesn’t help ease the loss, but a moment of reflection here is certainly called for. I will admit to being saddened by the Bristol-Myers Squibb acquisition of ZymoGenetics and the potential loss of some 300 plus jobs from the local biotech scene. I felt just as bad (actually, worse, being a scientist myself) when their research group was previously shut down and the scientists were let go. I haven’t heard anyone suggest that the latest biotech buyouts (Trubion Pharmaceuticals and ZymoGenetics) are harbingers of doom, though they may seem that way to those who lose their jobs. However, it is naïve to think that they won’t have a negative impact in the short term. Ted’s comment in response to Carl’s piece did a fine job of capturing the painful impact that may await many of those employees.


Biotech advances flow from the well of scientific discovery. Individuals who haven’t worked in a biotech setting don’t always grasp the synergistic benefits of putting together a research team that recombines individual talents to innovate fantastic discoveries that lead to new drugs. This doesn’t happen often in the industry and is a rare and valuable thing. Many of us who competed against ZymoGenetics over the years would acknowledge that they had assembled such a team. ZymoGenetics own website points out that products that they discovered or developed (and which are currently marketed by other companies) have combined yearly sales of over $3 billion. Another example: look at the articles that have been written chronicling how Roche has bent over backwards not to perturb the research culture of the recently acquired Genentech. They recognize their valuable investment and the need to protect innovation. They are hopeful that the Genentech group will continue to produce novel drugs at their industry-leading pace. Making money investing in biotech, whether as a VC or as a stock market investor, is certainly very demanding. However, actually developing a novel drug and getting it on the market is significantly more difficult. There are numerous examples of companies that have been acquired (thereby returning money to their investors) but the drugs that they were purchased for didn’t pan out.


A quick look at the WaBio website shows only about 33 job openings at local biotech companies, with about an equal number of jobs listed for academic and other institutions. Since 2002, when Amgen bought Immunex, there have been over 3,200 layoffs at local biotech companies (not including any upcoming layoffs at ZymoGenetics or Trubion), and I would wager that a lot of these folks were unable to find employment locally. Taking their skills elsewhere did not benefit us here in Seattle. The loss of ZymoGenetics may indeed lead to new companies being formed by those with an entrepreneurial spirit, as Carl suggested. However, it will take years (if ever) for these putative new companies to employ the number of individuals who typically are let go in these acquisitions. This also assumes that these companies get VC or other financial backing, which in the current economic climate is far from guaranteed. Also, Carl suggests that acquisitions recycle liquidity to investors, but how many of those investors are actually here in Seattle? Won’t most of that money go to support ventures (and not necessarily biotech) in other parts of the U.S. and, indeed, the world?


Many of us who work in the industry use the term “biotech anchor tenant”, but the phrase is often employed without benefit of a clear definition. Given that this term may mean different things to different people, I will offer one. A biotech anchor tenant for a city or a region, to my mind, is a company that meets two general criteria: (1) it is a near constant source of at least some jobs, owing to it’s relatively large size, rate of employee turnover, growth rate, or combination of these factors, and (2) is stable in the region and is not likely to close, relocate, or be acquired. This second criteria is getting harder and harder to meet. Even Big Pharma has closed down a number of its research facilities in the past year, with significant negative effects on the communities involved. For example, Pfizer abandoned its New London, CT research campus (and moved 1,400 jobs) leaving the town devastated. And even Big Biotech (e.g. Genentech), as we now know, was not too big to be acquired. Amgen’s Helix campus here in Seattle would meet this general definition as an anchor tenant, but more significantly, I would argue that Dendreon …Next Page »



Stewart Lyman is Owner and Manager of Lyman BioPharma Consulting LLC in Seattle.



I'm thrilled at the response to my previous blog post on America's need for 401(k) reform. The bad news is that big business has already developed a strategy to kill reform -- by intimidating the rank and file into lobbying against it. And it's perfectly legal.



While President Obama justifiably criticized the Supreme Court's Citizen United ruling that pretty much removes the limits from campaign spending in advertising, the real scandal on Capitol Hill isn't bankrolling corrupt candidates but creating a "fake citizens lobby" that convinces elected officials to vote the wrong way. It's perfectly legal for big business to pressure employees to lobby against reform that would help employees -- presumably employing the "spin" that reform is a job killer.



The group that's behind this tactic is one you've probably never heard of, BIPAC, a coalition of business owners and associations. When it comes to corporate skulduggery, you can't get much more lowlife than the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), one of BIPAC's leading members. NAM has fought against regulating derivatives because doing so "could hinder job creation for manufacturing" -- gee, which factories manufacture derivatives? NAM has also demanded the overhaul of the Family and Medical Leave Act because employees abuse it, and argued that employees who suffer from repetitive stress injuries such as carpal tunnel syndrome aren't really disabled.



There's a good chance that a "fake grass-roots effort" orchestrated by NAM helped convince members of Congress to drop their support for the Employee Free Choice Act, which lets workers opt for unionization simply by signing cards rather than through secret ballot elections. When I went to the page on a website that BIPAC created displaying sample campaigns, I saw a link where employees of NAM's member companies are encouraged to "Tell Members of Congress to Oppose the 'Employee FORCED Choice Act." Technically speaking, businesses can't punish employees who refuse to go along with this effort but in these tough economic times, I wouldn't be surprised if employees are likely to do what they're told rather than risk their job security.



Not surprisingly, NAM is a member of an employer group whose purpose is to fight any reform of 401(k) plans called The Coalition on Employee Retirement Benefits (CERB). Remember Enron? One of its most despicable practices was matching employees 401(k) contributions with company stock, which turns into "play money" if the company goes under. It's very likely that CERB's lobbying efforts watered down the Pension Security Act, which merely allows workers to sell company stock within three years of receiving it rather than limiting it in 401(k) accounts or prohibiting it altogether. As I pointed out in my book, "America, Welcome to the Poorhouse," in a letter to members of the Senate Finance Committee, CERB hints that if Congress is too hard on employers they might stop making 401(k) contributions altogether: " employers are not allowed to meet the legitimate business of encouraging employee ownership...they are likely to reduce or eliminate matching contributions."



How do we get members of Congress to work for the taxpayers who pay their salaries, as opposed to the business lobby? My thinking is that the chance of passing genuine campaign reform legislation is slim -- especially since Congress would have to vote for it. Instead we should create a citizens lobby, comprised of blue and white collar Americans who are watching their American dream turn into a nightmare, whether we're talking about higher medical co-pays, or unaffordable mortgages. Even when it comes to job shortages, most of us are "all in this financial stress together" -- whether we're affected by blue-collar factory jobs that have been outsourced to China or radiology/engineering jobs that have been off-shored to India.



As former SEIU President Andy Stern told me, "Team USA is in trouble. We don't have a plan. Let's grow up, people. This is a global economic war. We need to shake off complacency and get out of our self-analytical malaise." Forget about this Tea Party nonsense, we need a genuine new American revolution against the business lobby and those in Washington who do its bidding.









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Tuesday, September 21, 2010

foreclosure sales


There are enough homes in delinquency that the properties entering the system slowing will have no material effect on foreclosures increasing. And that shows no signs of abating. What’s more, banks are basically forbearing the first couple months of delinquency, artificially lowering the number of homes entering foreclosure because they don’t want to initiate the process.


Less trial modifications are being taken up through HAMP, as word of mouth spreads that the program is less than helpful at best and a predatory lending scheme at worst. The banks remain reluctant to do affordable workouts, especially with second liens, because they’d rather pretend the profits from them are on the books. They’d rather get something for the homes by returning them to the market, even though sales are at their lowest in 15 years. This giant “shadow inventory” just becomes a loss leader month after month for the banks, as more people just decide not to pay and take the risk of playing foreclosure roulette.


All of this will bring prices down significantly, and there’s not much the government is doing about that. So the “let them fall” brigade will get their chance, even as the banks leak out this inventory slowly. Officials expect 1 million homes will be lost to foreclosure this year.


If you think the economy can recover with this crisis looming, you’re wrong.


UPDATE: This is hilarious, Time has gone from a bubble cheerleader to a serious, sober analyst “rethinking homeownership.” Good one, guys!






43 Responses to “Letting the Housing Market Fall”







  1. David Merkel Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 9:54 am

    Way cool. Let the markets revert to levels that the cash flows can sustain, with modest leverage.








  2. Barry Ritholtz Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:14 am

    Exactly


    Ivy Zelman doesn’t quite make her case with this quote: “We have had enough artificial support and need to let the free market do its thing.” but the concept is correct


    Its obvious (to me anyway) that propping up the housing market is counter productive . . .








  3. dead hobo Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:26 am

    Yes, but here’s the problem with that idea.


    The Fed wants to maintain a 2% level of general inflation. The Fed believes that all falling prices are deflation, while the rest of us see it as prices normalizing to pre-bubble and pre-inflation levels. By definition, this repudiates the Fed’s most sacred belief and they probably look at accepting the concept of price recovery as an admission of their own personal incompetence.Thus, normal economics and a normal recovery is 180 degrees apart from the Fed’s goals if you measure their goals by their actions.


    Allowing prices to seek an appropriate level based on consumer supply and demand will not be allowed by the Fed because they define that as deflation. By trying to keep inflation as the normal state, they are prolonging the recession. Wages are falling. More and more are unable to afford to live in the Fed’s price manipulated world.


    The Fed helped create this problem over the last 20 years via the sweet smell of inflation making everyone more wealthy by expanding credit. When the value of assets that secure the credit fall, then demand for new credit falls. Had the Fed not inflated those assets a little at a time for a couple of decades, there probably would not be a bubble to have burst in 2000 or 2007. Just as Obama’s housing initiatives pulled housing demand forward a few months to get the tax credit, the Fed did the same for the demand for all assets, but more slowly for over a much longer time period. The after effect for both is the same. Lowering prices and less demand until prices fall.


    The Fed will, of course,never admit a failure in long term policy and will try to blow the bubble back up. This will keep prices from resetting and prolong the recession.








  4. franklin411 Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:32 am

    This column reminds me of another great prognosticator who put his faith in a magic army of buyers to suddenly materialize and save the nation, Andrew Mellon. Herbert Hoover and the Republican Congress followed his advice in 1929 to “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.” The theory was that if prices fell, buyers…from somewhere…would come in and pick up what was left.


    Hmm…how did that work out for us?








  5. jjay Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:37 am

    The message in that article is correct.

    The messenger (New York Times) gives me pause.

    Every thinking person knew the housing market was rigged to go ballistic from the start.

    The Government heaped $200,000 tax free capital gains on top of ZIRP, on top of NINJA loans and cheer leading by Greenspan and Bush.

    The NYT and others of their ilk saw nothing wrong with any of that.

    Greenspan was “The Maestro”, America was “a job creating machine”

    That they would change their tune now is to me ominous.

    It looks like a trial balloon, to let the proles know that TBTB are considering pulling the plug on the housing market at long last.

    Along with Biden’s and other establishment types saying 30 years of lost jobs “are not coming back”

    it’s clear to me they are now saying, “You are now a denizen of a Third World Country, get used to it”

    The stimulus fraud is at an end after this Novembers election.








  6. dead hobo Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:44 am

    franklin411 Says:

    September 6th, 2010 at 10:32 am


    Andrew Mellon. Herbert Hoover and the Republican Congress followed his advice in 1929 to “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.” The theory was that if prices fell, buyers…from somewhere…would come in and pick up what was left.


    Hmm…how did that work out for us?


    reply:

    ———–

    Well, the Depression is over so it must have eventually worked. Wars are traditionally a great way to inflate demand and get people back to work. WWII helped here. Eliminating the gold standard, or more precisely, allowing the Fed to print at will helped fix it, but eventually got out of control and helped create a new bubble problem because they really didn’t know what they were doing.


    Also, why wouldn’t you liquidate assets that you don’t need and can’t pay for? Everything is owned by someone. Always. There’s always a price low enough. Someone always gets left holding the bill. Today, the preference is to let Uncle Stupid pay for it somehow and/or ask the Fed and Uncle Stupid to prop up the price long enough to find a greater fool.








  7. philipat Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:53 am

    What goes up, must come down?


    Why play with the laws of physics?








  8. dead hobo Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:57 am

    Barry Ritholtz Says:

    September 6th, 2010 at 10:14 am


    Its obvious (to me anyway) that propping up the housing market is counter productive . . .


    reply:

    ———-

    Yes, but I think they do this with all assets, including the stock market, in order to keep the pump primed, validate their past inflationary exercises, and try to keep value in a market that people trusted with their savings as honestly priced. A Fed audit will prove or disprove my assertion about Fed stock market manipulations. I know there has been a multitude of denials from them about this, but their credibility is low because their competence is low.








  9. RW Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:58 am

    The inventory overhang in housing supply is gargantuan and neither lower prices nor lower interest rates will entice buyers who not only have no need to buy but valid reason to believe that prices could fall even further.


    Generals always fight the last war and supply-side thinking can only lead to nonsense when the problem is lack of demand.


    My 2007 RE shorts were highly profitable and, given how far we have already fallen, I do not anticipate duplicating that resounding success but I will almost certainly re-initiate some positions among the remaining RE survivors if the proposed liquidation program goes forward.








  10. whskyjack Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:01 am

    Different parts of the country have different housing issues. For most of us, just get the economy moving and housing will take care of itself. Those folks who foolishly bought into the California market at it’s high or the Florida market, they are in for a long time of pain as they wait for their property to appeciate. But it was a choice for them, nobody forced them to take on the debt. There are a large number of us that opted to stay in our older house or rent and not take on the debt.

    For me The tax breaks let me sell my fatherinlaws house and I’m buying property for rentals. I just need for the housing market to recover and stabilise . Maybe in 15 years it will form another bubble and I can dump it on some enthusiastic youngster and retire to the islands.


    Jack








  11. vader Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:04 am

    The other issue is that as assets fall in value what does buyers have to buy with? Even cash holders can be threatened as banks fail because their assets decline in value. A big enough crash and even cash owners will feel so threatened as to put off buying either in fear of assets keeping declining in value or fear of the future in general.








  12. whskyjack Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:09 am

    Vader


    I haven’t found money to be a problem even at the depth of the panic we found money available. It nodoubt helps to be credit worthy








  13. louis Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:09 am

    More lipstick for the pig starting Tuesday.


    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704323704575461920164400014.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_US_News_5








  14. RandyClayton Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:15 am

    So, how much farther does the Case-Shiller index need to fall before houses have returned to an equilibrium level?








  15. Steve Barry Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:17 am

    “Its not a crash that is needed — it is merely allowing prices to revert to their historic levels.”


    Be more specific…any historic level over the last 20 years or more is distorted by an over-arching credit mania and sub-bubbles in stocks and housing itself.


    We rally need the credit bubble to revert to 1950 levels and then see where housing shakes out. otherwise you are treating one tumor and not the whole cancer.








  16. DrungoHazewood Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:31 am

    I own quite a bit of real estate, and I say let it go. The stuff is practically worthless anyway as there are no buyers. None.








  17. franklin411 Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:41 am

    @Hobo:

    Well, something did happen between 1929 and 1939 that changed the course of events. The New Deal generation was mature enough to recognize that: “our distress comes from no failure of substance. We are stricken by no plague of locusts. Compared with the perils which our forefathers conquered because they believed and were not afraid, we have still much to be thankful for. Nature still offers her bounty and human efforts have multiplied it. Plenty is at our doorstep, but a generous use of it languishes in the very sight of the supply. Primarily this is because the rulers of the exchange of mankind’s goods have failed, through their own stubbornness and their own incompetence, have admitted their failure, and abdicated. Practices of the unscrupulous money changers stand indicted in the court of public opinion, rejected by the hearts and minds of men.” – - FDR’s Inaugural, 1933


    As Eugene Robinson points out in the Washington Post, we’re made of weaker stuff these days. I take it a step further and point to the Baby Boomers as the reason for America’s decline. We have never had a weaker, more selfish, and most spoiled generation in American history.


    When the last Baby Boomer dies, this country will be great once again.


    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/02/AR2010090203992.html?nav=emailpage








  18. JustinTheSkeptic Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:47 am

    Supporting prices has never worked we all no this. Can anyone give an example of when it has?








  19. franklin411 Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:54 am

    @Justin

    Easy. Just look to American history.


    We used to have farm depressions every decade or so beginning in the 1870s. The worst farm depression in American history began in the 1920s, and it lasted until the New Deal. FDR instituted a program of price supports to stabilize the cycle of farm boom and bust, and we’ve been sticking to that program ever since.


    The result?


    We haven’t had a farm depression since then, and food is cheaper, more plentiful, and safer than at any point in human history.


    Easy.








  20. louis Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 12:14 pm

    The problem is with the “banksters” and their minions.








  21. krice2001 Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 12:17 pm

    On the topic of Letting The Housing Market Fall – there’s the issue of politics as always. Which administration is prepared to allow or could survive letting most American’s largest asset fall precipitously (further) and expect not to suffer further politcal consequences. It’s not as it the Republicans will back off seeing the President take an approach that many of us believe is correct and necessary. He would be far worse off. There’s no way they don’t know that.


    While many claim to be frustrated by the bailing out of those who in many cases got themselves into trouble and lament “failed” stimulus, I suspect many of those would be more angry when the value of their home and largest asset tumbles yet another 15%-20%. We’re hypocritical that way, weakening the political resolve of our elected officials to do the right thing. (It seems hard enough for them anyway).








  22. algernon Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 12:19 pm

    The solution to a bust is allowing prices to adjust. All the stimulus–the gov’t bureaucrats attempting to manipulate “aggregate demand”– can’t solve the problem of incorrect relative prices.








  23. maspablo Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 12:31 pm

    The way i see it we have 3 scenarios ( as barry n others have said)

    1) keep on artificially inflating and supporting , try to bring hyperinflation t0 value of homes above purchase costs .( but $ dollar is worthless and creates bigger problems )

    2) keep on supporting and inflating and prices zig zag/flat , not dropping enough to get people who will service the debt and clear the overhang . also prices take at least 10 years to appreciate , souring the American dream

    3) withdrawal support , prices fall , interest rates rise , prices fall more .. pissing off millions crushing American dream , but Debt load will be eventually be serviced


    But , instead of choosing among these scenarios , were going to start with the first , fail go to 2nd fail , then end up with the 3 rd scenario . were going to extend our housing bust into as long as the housing boom, 15 years.


    The main reason is a higher % of homeowers and owners vote and politicians have to answer to them. Try repealing Prop 13 in CA or homestead in FL . it wont happen








  24. Mark E Hoffer Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 12:39 pm

    “…The result?


    We haven’t had a farm depression since then, and food is cheaper, more plentiful, and safer than at any point in human history.


    Easy.”–f411, above


    f., young chap, take a peek at http://www.organicconsumers.org/2006/log.cfm

    http://www.organicconsumers.org/index.htm

    & http://jeffreydach.com/2008/08/14/genetically-modified-gmo-food-the-great-scandal-by-jeffrey-dach-md.aspx


    the, only, reasonable explaination for your Statement, above, is that you’re long Agri-Tech-, and the ‘Health-Care’-, ICs, or, more simply, you’ve been ‘-washed’ ..








  25. DL Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 12:39 pm

    And what about Fannie/Freddie? Shouldn’t we stop putting government money into those entities; should the U.S. government stop guaranteeing their debt?


    There’s also the issue of “QE” by the Fed. Should they buy more mortgage-backed securities? Treasury bonds?


    I agree that the government should stop pouring money into housing. I also think that, at some point, they should also end the mortgage interest deduction (although not right now).








  26. drey Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 1:39 pm

    “Its not a crash that is needed — it is merely allowing prices to revert to their historic levels.”


    Historic meaning that we have seen the same circumstances before? WTH would be a ‘historic’ level?


    Better to simply say prices should be allowed to find their own equilibrium without govt interference.








  27. whskyjack Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 3:19 pm

    “We haven’t had a farm depression since then”

    Well, it depends what you definition of a depression is. The 1980′s were close enough as the farmers saw the same real estate bubble bursting as home owners have recently, The government also played an important role in the bubble by supplying easy credit for farmers to expand.

    Having been through that real estate bubble probably helped me avoid the recent one.

    Jack








  28. S Brennan Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 3:59 pm

    The bottom will be reached when those who have been impoverished by lack of income return to work.


    A lot of working class people would be smart enough to not sell at the “near bottom” if they had options that a real paycheck gives them…they’re just not smart enough to revolt in an organized way, petty vengeance yes.








  29. Marc P Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 7:43 pm

    Seems to me that we know we’ve hit bottom in real estate as soon as the TBTF speculators start investing in it. Since that hasn’t happened, and since they effectively now control U.S. economic policy, then we can expect prices to fall. Privately, they don’t call this price normalization or deflation. They call this a profit opportunity. Bet on the downside, then bet on the upside. Betting sure is fun when you control the outcome.








  30. H. Rider Haggard Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 7:48 pm

    Yesterday I stumbled across this September 1 piece on Zero Hedge: Are Existing Home Prices Overrepresented By Up To 40%? (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/are-existing-home-prices-overrepresented-40?source=patrick.net#inner-content).


    Briefly, it seems that realtors may have been systematically reporting full-listing-price sales prices for homes actually sold at lower auction prices.


    It’s news to me. Anyone else seen it?








  31. Maseratij Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 8:11 pm

    @franklin411 Here ! Here ! My brother, why wait. Let you and I start the arm that will control the hand that puts the blade to their necks. Selfish Baby boomers, the payment for your hubris is nigh! They have abandoned Civil Rights, Women’s Rights, and anything else they believed in the Summer of Love !


    Perhaps the media’s coverage of that small minority on the streets was the beginning of our myopic and pandering media jounalists we live with today. This generation never once made a tough decision, or stood by principle, liberty, or doing the “right’ thing. Why should we suffer for decades with their ruins ?


    Stand up and take back what they have stolen for their coiffures of greed.








  32. kaleberg Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 9:58 pm

    According to HUD the median single family house price in Q1 2010 was about $270K, and this was pretty stable. You can get a 30 year fixed rate mortgage at about 4.5%. That’s a monthly payment of $1,370 or $16,440 per year. The average hourly wage is about $19. That’s 865 hours a year. In the 1960s and 1970s, houses cost about 600 hours, but the price popped up to 800 hours in the 1980s and stayed there until the recent bubble. It was nearly 1,000 in 2005, but the real highs were in the late 1970s and early 1980s when interest rates soared. It now looks like prices are getting back in line with wages, especially if interest rates stay low.


    Unfortunately, not everyone has a job, so the effective hourly wage is lower, especially as employers continue to demand pay cuts and pass higher medical costs to employees. That cuts demand and further weakens prices. Who knows, we might see house prices drop to 600 hours a year yet.


    (It’s kind of silly looking at dollars when the actual equation most people use involves hours of work.)








  33. bman Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:06 pm

    Maseratij,

    Yes I wondered about that sort of thing too, here we’ve had Neil Young formerly of Crosby Still Nash and Young, who sang so seemingly a heartfelt yarn about four dead in Ohio, who in later life still wealthy from royalties of earlier songs, he would write a song called “Let’s Roll” in the drum-up to war. They were called bums and hedonists back then and were told to get a job, I suppose maybe the old folks might have known what they were talking about.








  34. AGORACOM Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 6:12 am

    @franklin411 Says:


    @Justin

    Easy. Just look to American history.


    We used to have farm depressions every decade or so beginning in the 1870s. The worst farm depression in American history began in the 1920s, and it lasted until the New Deal. FDR instituted a program of price supports to stabilize the cycle of farm boom and bust, and we’ve been sticking to that program ever since.


    The result?


    We haven’t had a farm depression since then, and food is cheaper, more plentiful, and safer than at any point in human history.


    Easy.


    ————————


    @franklin411 – Farmers need support because they try to provide critical goods while being susceptible to forces beyond their control. I don’t want them to struggle for such reasons because it threatens food supply and safety. As such, they are a no brainer investment.


    OTOH, moronic real estate investors driven by greed, false mortgage apps and annual re-financing to pay off excessive credit card spending neither require nor deserve any such support.


    Regards,

    George








  35. rktbrkr Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 9:30 am

    The US has been subsidizing housing in various ways since the great depression. I guess stepping back from all these subsidies would be the simon pure solution, no tax deductions, no capital gains breaks on sales, no F&F, FHA, VA and other types of help. Take the big hit immediately, get it over with.


    Think about what happens if RE drops 80% from current levels. You’d get enormous numbers of walk aways, banks might not be willing to write any mortgages, home purchases would be all cash, peoples #1 asset vaporizes, the wealth effect goes in reverse in 5th gear.


    Every banks with extensive mortgages portfolios would be wiped out, if tough love is OK for borrowers then it should be appropriate for lenders too. All the efforts to avoid a full blown depression the past couple years reverses to a “bring it on” challenge to the markets.








  36. DeDude Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 12:18 pm

    Not a chance of any further support for housing. The original rationale for round one was to step in to avoid a panic with prices undershooting substantially and dragging the economy down (good politics, good policy). That was pretty much gone by the second round of housing rebates – but they passed anyway for political reasons (good politics, bad policy). At this time they would be outright harmful and unpopular (bad politics, very bad policy).








  37. Nuggz Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 12:35 pm

    “Letting the Housing Market Fall”?


    Be prepared to see many, many small to medium-sized community banks to become insolvent, overnight.


    Strategic defaulting will be the hot topic at every dinner table or Happy Meal. Whichever you may choose.








  38. formerlawyer Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 12:40 pm

    Before we get there, how do we define an “ideal” level of home ownership?


    Do we aim for Germany’s 42%? How about Australia’s 70%? Or Singapore’s 90%?

    (note: In Singapore this is on a 90 year lease basis see: http://www.smu.edu.sg/research/publications/pdf/SYPhang_OwnerOccupier.pdf)

    see generally:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Owner-occupier


    Does it vary from urban, to near-urban to rural areas?

    Does it vary based on the particular region?


    What laws and policies would be needed or not needed to result in such an “ideal” result?


    Or do we just let the mythical market decide?


    Markets are a product of laws and policies no less than any other social phenomena – so who decides?








  39. epupo Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 2:19 pm

    “This column reminds me of another great prognosticator who put his faith in a magic army of buyers to suddenly materialize and save the nation, Andrew Mellon. Herbert Hoover and the Republican Congress followed his advice in 1929 to “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.” ”


    To be fair and “balanced”, Mellon did not believe a huge army of buyers was coming. He believed that this liquidation should occur so that the system that arose from it would be free of the rot that had caused unsustainable stock market speculation in the first place.


    In fact that is something a lot of people (including Barry) have been arguing; rather than artificially holding up the “old world”, let it go and allow it to collapse on its own so a new system arises.








  40. epupo Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 2:25 pm

    “As Eugene Robinson points out in the Washington Post, we’re made of weaker stuff these days. I take it a step further and point to the Baby Boomers as the reason for America’s decline.”


    Calling the American people “a bunch of spoiled brats” is not likely to win many fans for the Democrats or any other political party.


    Furthermore the Baby Boomer generation could be argued as being one that was more liberal in their outlook; the Great Society programs came from the postwar generation of liberals who believed American could do anything.


    The issue people forget about the New Deal and the postwar boom is that the productive capacity of most of the rest of the world was blown to bits by WWII. The “buyers” you speak of came from that loss of production.


    I think the problem for policymakers today is how can you “replicate” that type of buying power is the rest of the world is essentially over-capacity as it stands now, in all sorts of things, real estate being one rather large example.








  41. epupo Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 2:31 pm

    “FDR instituted a program of price supports to stabilize the cycle of farm boom and bust, and we’ve been sticking to that program ever since.”


    He paid farmers to burn oversupply of certain crops to maintain price stability.


    I am all for destroying whole communities of empty houses and starting over rather than trying to force people to buy homes they clearly don’t want. Why doesn’t the government spend billions of dollars to simply destroy many of the homes that were built in the last decade that have little realistic chance of ever being inhabited?








  42. Nuggz Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 3:50 pm

    “Why doesn’t the government spend billions of dollars to simply destroy many of the homes that were built in the last decade that have little realistic chance of ever being inhabited?”


    Nuggz likes this.


    I just shake my head when I see acres of prime farmland get replaced by what some people call “homes”. I call them rat cages, but beauty is in the eye of the beholder I suppose.








  43. rvirmani Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 5:00 pm

    While the message is correct, the TBTB seem to have planned this. The game is to crash the US Currency. If you allow house prices to fall, you will effectively remove more liquidity from the economy, as more and more households will effectively become underwater. This would further increase defaults, so yeah house prices should fall, but now is the worst possible time. Hence the NYT is now chaninging its tune. When was the last time that rag was on the side of market forces?


    “The purpose of this financial crisis is to take down the U.S. dollar as the stable datum of planetary finance and, in the midst of the resulting confusion, put in its place a Global Monetary Authority [GMA - run directly by international bankers freed of any government control] -a planetary financial control organization”- Bruce Wiseman












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There are enough homes in delinquency that the properties entering the system slowing will have no material effect on foreclosures increasing. And that shows no signs of abating. What’s more, banks are basically forbearing the first couple months of delinquency, artificially lowering the number of homes entering foreclosure because they don’t want to initiate the process.


Less trial modifications are being taken up through HAMP, as word of mouth spreads that the program is less than helpful at best and a predatory lending scheme at worst. The banks remain reluctant to do affordable workouts, especially with second liens, because they’d rather pretend the profits from them are on the books. They’d rather get something for the homes by returning them to the market, even though sales are at their lowest in 15 years. This giant “shadow inventory” just becomes a loss leader month after month for the banks, as more people just decide not to pay and take the risk of playing foreclosure roulette.


All of this will bring prices down significantly, and there’s not much the government is doing about that. So the “let them fall” brigade will get their chance, even as the banks leak out this inventory slowly. Officials expect 1 million homes will be lost to foreclosure this year.


If you think the economy can recover with this crisis looming, you’re wrong.


UPDATE: This is hilarious, Time has gone from a bubble cheerleader to a serious, sober analyst “rethinking homeownership.” Good one, guys!






43 Responses to “Letting the Housing Market Fall”







  1. David Merkel Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 9:54 am

    Way cool. Let the markets revert to levels that the cash flows can sustain, with modest leverage.








  2. Barry Ritholtz Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:14 am

    Exactly


    Ivy Zelman doesn’t quite make her case with this quote: “We have had enough artificial support and need to let the free market do its thing.” but the concept is correct


    Its obvious (to me anyway) that propping up the housing market is counter productive . . .








  3. dead hobo Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:26 am

    Yes, but here’s the problem with that idea.


    The Fed wants to maintain a 2% level of general inflation. The Fed believes that all falling prices are deflation, while the rest of us see it as prices normalizing to pre-bubble and pre-inflation levels. By definition, this repudiates the Fed’s most sacred belief and they probably look at accepting the concept of price recovery as an admission of their own personal incompetence.Thus, normal economics and a normal recovery is 180 degrees apart from the Fed’s goals if you measure their goals by their actions.


    Allowing prices to seek an appropriate level based on consumer supply and demand will not be allowed by the Fed because they define that as deflation. By trying to keep inflation as the normal state, they are prolonging the recession. Wages are falling. More and more are unable to afford to live in the Fed’s price manipulated world.


    The Fed helped create this problem over the last 20 years via the sweet smell of inflation making everyone more wealthy by expanding credit. When the value of assets that secure the credit fall, then demand for new credit falls. Had the Fed not inflated those assets a little at a time for a couple of decades, there probably would not be a bubble to have burst in 2000 or 2007. Just as Obama’s housing initiatives pulled housing demand forward a few months to get the tax credit, the Fed did the same for the demand for all assets, but more slowly for over a much longer time period. The after effect for both is the same. Lowering prices and less demand until prices fall.


    The Fed will, of course,never admit a failure in long term policy and will try to blow the bubble back up. This will keep prices from resetting and prolong the recession.








  4. franklin411 Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:32 am

    This column reminds me of another great prognosticator who put his faith in a magic army of buyers to suddenly materialize and save the nation, Andrew Mellon. Herbert Hoover and the Republican Congress followed his advice in 1929 to “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.” The theory was that if prices fell, buyers…from somewhere…would come in and pick up what was left.


    Hmm…how did that work out for us?








  5. jjay Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:37 am

    The message in that article is correct.

    The messenger (New York Times) gives me pause.

    Every thinking person knew the housing market was rigged to go ballistic from the start.

    The Government heaped $200,000 tax free capital gains on top of ZIRP, on top of NINJA loans and cheer leading by Greenspan and Bush.

    The NYT and others of their ilk saw nothing wrong with any of that.

    Greenspan was “The Maestro”, America was “a job creating machine”

    That they would change their tune now is to me ominous.

    It looks like a trial balloon, to let the proles know that TBTB are considering pulling the plug on the housing market at long last.

    Along with Biden’s and other establishment types saying 30 years of lost jobs “are not coming back”

    it’s clear to me they are now saying, “You are now a denizen of a Third World Country, get used to it”

    The stimulus fraud is at an end after this Novembers election.








  6. dead hobo Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:44 am

    franklin411 Says:

    September 6th, 2010 at 10:32 am


    Andrew Mellon. Herbert Hoover and the Republican Congress followed his advice in 1929 to “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.” The theory was that if prices fell, buyers…from somewhere…would come in and pick up what was left.


    Hmm…how did that work out for us?


    reply:

    ———–

    Well, the Depression is over so it must have eventually worked. Wars are traditionally a great way to inflate demand and get people back to work. WWII helped here. Eliminating the gold standard, or more precisely, allowing the Fed to print at will helped fix it, but eventually got out of control and helped create a new bubble problem because they really didn’t know what they were doing.


    Also, why wouldn’t you liquidate assets that you don’t need and can’t pay for? Everything is owned by someone. Always. There’s always a price low enough. Someone always gets left holding the bill. Today, the preference is to let Uncle Stupid pay for it somehow and/or ask the Fed and Uncle Stupid to prop up the price long enough to find a greater fool.








  7. philipat Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:53 am

    What goes up, must come down?


    Why play with the laws of physics?








  8. dead hobo Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:57 am

    Barry Ritholtz Says:

    September 6th, 2010 at 10:14 am


    Its obvious (to me anyway) that propping up the housing market is counter productive . . .


    reply:

    ———-

    Yes, but I think they do this with all assets, including the stock market, in order to keep the pump primed, validate their past inflationary exercises, and try to keep value in a market that people trusted with their savings as honestly priced. A Fed audit will prove or disprove my assertion about Fed stock market manipulations. I know there has been a multitude of denials from them about this, but their credibility is low because their competence is low.








  9. RW Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 10:58 am

    The inventory overhang in housing supply is gargantuan and neither lower prices nor lower interest rates will entice buyers who not only have no need to buy but valid reason to believe that prices could fall even further.


    Generals always fight the last war and supply-side thinking can only lead to nonsense when the problem is lack of demand.


    My 2007 RE shorts were highly profitable and, given how far we have already fallen, I do not anticipate duplicating that resounding success but I will almost certainly re-initiate some positions among the remaining RE survivors if the proposed liquidation program goes forward.








  10. whskyjack Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:01 am

    Different parts of the country have different housing issues. For most of us, just get the economy moving and housing will take care of itself. Those folks who foolishly bought into the California market at it’s high or the Florida market, they are in for a long time of pain as they wait for their property to appeciate. But it was a choice for them, nobody forced them to take on the debt. There are a large number of us that opted to stay in our older house or rent and not take on the debt.

    For me The tax breaks let me sell my fatherinlaws house and I’m buying property for rentals. I just need for the housing market to recover and stabilise . Maybe in 15 years it will form another bubble and I can dump it on some enthusiastic youngster and retire to the islands.


    Jack








  11. vader Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:04 am

    The other issue is that as assets fall in value what does buyers have to buy with? Even cash holders can be threatened as banks fail because their assets decline in value. A big enough crash and even cash owners will feel so threatened as to put off buying either in fear of assets keeping declining in value or fear of the future in general.








  12. whskyjack Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:09 am

    Vader


    I haven’t found money to be a problem even at the depth of the panic we found money available. It nodoubt helps to be credit worthy








  13. louis Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:09 am

    More lipstick for the pig starting Tuesday.


    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704323704575461920164400014.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_US_News_5








  14. RandyClayton Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:15 am

    So, how much farther does the Case-Shiller index need to fall before houses have returned to an equilibrium level?








  15. Steve Barry Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:17 am

    “Its not a crash that is needed — it is merely allowing prices to revert to their historic levels.”


    Be more specific…any historic level over the last 20 years or more is distorted by an over-arching credit mania and sub-bubbles in stocks and housing itself.


    We rally need the credit bubble to revert to 1950 levels and then see where housing shakes out. otherwise you are treating one tumor and not the whole cancer.








  16. DrungoHazewood Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:31 am

    I own quite a bit of real estate, and I say let it go. The stuff is practically worthless anyway as there are no buyers. None.








  17. franklin411 Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:41 am

    @Hobo:

    Well, something did happen between 1929 and 1939 that changed the course of events. The New Deal generation was mature enough to recognize that: “our distress comes from no failure of substance. We are stricken by no plague of locusts. Compared with the perils which our forefathers conquered because they believed and were not afraid, we have still much to be thankful for. Nature still offers her bounty and human efforts have multiplied it. Plenty is at our doorstep, but a generous use of it languishes in the very sight of the supply. Primarily this is because the rulers of the exchange of mankind’s goods have failed, through their own stubbornness and their own incompetence, have admitted their failure, and abdicated. Practices of the unscrupulous money changers stand indicted in the court of public opinion, rejected by the hearts and minds of men.” – - FDR’s Inaugural, 1933


    As Eugene Robinson points out in the Washington Post, we’re made of weaker stuff these days. I take it a step further and point to the Baby Boomers as the reason for America’s decline. We have never had a weaker, more selfish, and most spoiled generation in American history.


    When the last Baby Boomer dies, this country will be great once again.


    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/02/AR2010090203992.html?nav=emailpage








  18. JustinTheSkeptic Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:47 am

    Supporting prices has never worked we all no this. Can anyone give an example of when it has?








  19. franklin411 Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:54 am

    @Justin

    Easy. Just look to American history.


    We used to have farm depressions every decade or so beginning in the 1870s. The worst farm depression in American history began in the 1920s, and it lasted until the New Deal. FDR instituted a program of price supports to stabilize the cycle of farm boom and bust, and we’ve been sticking to that program ever since.


    The result?


    We haven’t had a farm depression since then, and food is cheaper, more plentiful, and safer than at any point in human history.


    Easy.








  20. louis Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 12:14 pm

    The problem is with the “banksters” and their minions.








  21. krice2001 Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 12:17 pm

    On the topic of Letting The Housing Market Fall – there’s the issue of politics as always. Which administration is prepared to allow or could survive letting most American’s largest asset fall precipitously (further) and expect not to suffer further politcal consequences. It’s not as it the Republicans will back off seeing the President take an approach that many of us believe is correct and necessary. He would be far worse off. There’s no way they don’t know that.


    While many claim to be frustrated by the bailing out of those who in many cases got themselves into trouble and lament “failed” stimulus, I suspect many of those would be more angry when the value of their home and largest asset tumbles yet another 15%-20%. We’re hypocritical that way, weakening the political resolve of our elected officials to do the right thing. (It seems hard enough for them anyway).








  22. algernon Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 12:19 pm

    The solution to a bust is allowing prices to adjust. All the stimulus–the gov’t bureaucrats attempting to manipulate “aggregate demand”– can’t solve the problem of incorrect relative prices.








  23. maspablo Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 12:31 pm

    The way i see it we have 3 scenarios ( as barry n others have said)

    1) keep on artificially inflating and supporting , try to bring hyperinflation t0 value of homes above purchase costs .( but $ dollar is worthless and creates bigger problems )

    2) keep on supporting and inflating and prices zig zag/flat , not dropping enough to get people who will service the debt and clear the overhang . also prices take at least 10 years to appreciate , souring the American dream

    3) withdrawal support , prices fall , interest rates rise , prices fall more .. pissing off millions crushing American dream , but Debt load will be eventually be serviced


    But , instead of choosing among these scenarios , were going to start with the first , fail go to 2nd fail , then end up with the 3 rd scenario . were going to extend our housing bust into as long as the housing boom, 15 years.


    The main reason is a higher % of homeowers and owners vote and politicians have to answer to them. Try repealing Prop 13 in CA or homestead in FL . it wont happen








  24. Mark E Hoffer Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 12:39 pm

    “…The result?


    We haven’t had a farm depression since then, and food is cheaper, more plentiful, and safer than at any point in human history.


    Easy.”–f411, above


    f., young chap, take a peek at http://www.organicconsumers.org/2006/log.cfm

    http://www.organicconsumers.org/index.htm

    & http://jeffreydach.com/2008/08/14/genetically-modified-gmo-food-the-great-scandal-by-jeffrey-dach-md.aspx


    the, only, reasonable explaination for your Statement, above, is that you’re long Agri-Tech-, and the ‘Health-Care’-, ICs, or, more simply, you’ve been ‘-washed’ ..








  25. DL Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 12:39 pm

    And what about Fannie/Freddie? Shouldn’t we stop putting government money into those entities; should the U.S. government stop guaranteeing their debt?


    There’s also the issue of “QE” by the Fed. Should they buy more mortgage-backed securities? Treasury bonds?


    I agree that the government should stop pouring money into housing. I also think that, at some point, they should also end the mortgage interest deduction (although not right now).








  26. drey Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 1:39 pm

    “Its not a crash that is needed — it is merely allowing prices to revert to their historic levels.”


    Historic meaning that we have seen the same circumstances before? WTH would be a ‘historic’ level?


    Better to simply say prices should be allowed to find their own equilibrium without govt interference.








  27. whskyjack Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 3:19 pm

    “We haven’t had a farm depression since then”

    Well, it depends what you definition of a depression is. The 1980′s were close enough as the farmers saw the same real estate bubble bursting as home owners have recently, The government also played an important role in the bubble by supplying easy credit for farmers to expand.

    Having been through that real estate bubble probably helped me avoid the recent one.

    Jack








  28. S Brennan Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 3:59 pm

    The bottom will be reached when those who have been impoverished by lack of income return to work.


    A lot of working class people would be smart enough to not sell at the “near bottom” if they had options that a real paycheck gives them…they’re just not smart enough to revolt in an organized way, petty vengeance yes.








  29. Marc P Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 7:43 pm

    Seems to me that we know we’ve hit bottom in real estate as soon as the TBTF speculators start investing in it. Since that hasn’t happened, and since they effectively now control U.S. economic policy, then we can expect prices to fall. Privately, they don’t call this price normalization or deflation. They call this a profit opportunity. Bet on the downside, then bet on the upside. Betting sure is fun when you control the outcome.








  30. H. Rider Haggard Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 7:48 pm

    Yesterday I stumbled across this September 1 piece on Zero Hedge: Are Existing Home Prices Overrepresented By Up To 40%? (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/are-existing-home-prices-overrepresented-40?source=patrick.net#inner-content).


    Briefly, it seems that realtors may have been systematically reporting full-listing-price sales prices for homes actually sold at lower auction prices.


    It’s news to me. Anyone else seen it?








  31. Maseratij Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 8:11 pm

    @franklin411 Here ! Here ! My brother, why wait. Let you and I start the arm that will control the hand that puts the blade to their necks. Selfish Baby boomers, the payment for your hubris is nigh! They have abandoned Civil Rights, Women’s Rights, and anything else they believed in the Summer of Love !


    Perhaps the media’s coverage of that small minority on the streets was the beginning of our myopic and pandering media jounalists we live with today. This generation never once made a tough decision, or stood by principle, liberty, or doing the “right’ thing. Why should we suffer for decades with their ruins ?


    Stand up and take back what they have stolen for their coiffures of greed.








  32. kaleberg Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 9:58 pm

    According to HUD the median single family house price in Q1 2010 was about $270K, and this was pretty stable. You can get a 30 year fixed rate mortgage at about 4.5%. That’s a monthly payment of $1,370 or $16,440 per year. The average hourly wage is about $19. That’s 865 hours a year. In the 1960s and 1970s, houses cost about 600 hours, but the price popped up to 800 hours in the 1980s and stayed there until the recent bubble. It was nearly 1,000 in 2005, but the real highs were in the late 1970s and early 1980s when interest rates soared. It now looks like prices are getting back in line with wages, especially if interest rates stay low.


    Unfortunately, not everyone has a job, so the effective hourly wage is lower, especially as employers continue to demand pay cuts and pass higher medical costs to employees. That cuts demand and further weakens prices. Who knows, we might see house prices drop to 600 hours a year yet.


    (It’s kind of silly looking at dollars when the actual equation most people use involves hours of work.)








  33. bman Says:



    September 6th, 2010 at 11:06 pm

    Maseratij,

    Yes I wondered about that sort of thing too, here we’ve had Neil Young formerly of Crosby Still Nash and Young, who sang so seemingly a heartfelt yarn about four dead in Ohio, who in later life still wealthy from royalties of earlier songs, he would write a song called “Let’s Roll” in the drum-up to war. They were called bums and hedonists back then and were told to get a job, I suppose maybe the old folks might have known what they were talking about.








  34. AGORACOM Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 6:12 am

    @franklin411 Says:


    @Justin

    Easy. Just look to American history.


    We used to have farm depressions every decade or so beginning in the 1870s. The worst farm depression in American history began in the 1920s, and it lasted until the New Deal. FDR instituted a program of price supports to stabilize the cycle of farm boom and bust, and we’ve been sticking to that program ever since.


    The result?


    We haven’t had a farm depression since then, and food is cheaper, more plentiful, and safer than at any point in human history.


    Easy.


    ————————


    @franklin411 – Farmers need support because they try to provide critical goods while being susceptible to forces beyond their control. I don’t want them to struggle for such reasons because it threatens food supply and safety. As such, they are a no brainer investment.


    OTOH, moronic real estate investors driven by greed, false mortgage apps and annual re-financing to pay off excessive credit card spending neither require nor deserve any such support.


    Regards,

    George








  35. rktbrkr Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 9:30 am

    The US has been subsidizing housing in various ways since the great depression. I guess stepping back from all these subsidies would be the simon pure solution, no tax deductions, no capital gains breaks on sales, no F&F, FHA, VA and other types of help. Take the big hit immediately, get it over with.


    Think about what happens if RE drops 80% from current levels. You’d get enormous numbers of walk aways, banks might not be willing to write any mortgages, home purchases would be all cash, peoples #1 asset vaporizes, the wealth effect goes in reverse in 5th gear.


    Every banks with extensive mortgages portfolios would be wiped out, if tough love is OK for borrowers then it should be appropriate for lenders too. All the efforts to avoid a full blown depression the past couple years reverses to a “bring it on” challenge to the markets.








  36. DeDude Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 12:18 pm

    Not a chance of any further support for housing. The original rationale for round one was to step in to avoid a panic with prices undershooting substantially and dragging the economy down (good politics, good policy). That was pretty much gone by the second round of housing rebates – but they passed anyway for political reasons (good politics, bad policy). At this time they would be outright harmful and unpopular (bad politics, very bad policy).








  37. Nuggz Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 12:35 pm

    “Letting the Housing Market Fall”?


    Be prepared to see many, many small to medium-sized community banks to become insolvent, overnight.


    Strategic defaulting will be the hot topic at every dinner table or Happy Meal. Whichever you may choose.








  38. formerlawyer Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 12:40 pm

    Before we get there, how do we define an “ideal” level of home ownership?


    Do we aim for Germany’s 42%? How about Australia’s 70%? Or Singapore’s 90%?

    (note: In Singapore this is on a 90 year lease basis see: http://www.smu.edu.sg/research/publications/pdf/SYPhang_OwnerOccupier.pdf)

    see generally:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Owner-occupier


    Does it vary from urban, to near-urban to rural areas?

    Does it vary based on the particular region?


    What laws and policies would be needed or not needed to result in such an “ideal” result?


    Or do we just let the mythical market decide?


    Markets are a product of laws and policies no less than any other social phenomena – so who decides?








  39. epupo Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 2:19 pm

    “This column reminds me of another great prognosticator who put his faith in a magic army of buyers to suddenly materialize and save the nation, Andrew Mellon. Herbert Hoover and the Republican Congress followed his advice in 1929 to “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.” ”


    To be fair and “balanced”, Mellon did not believe a huge army of buyers was coming. He believed that this liquidation should occur so that the system that arose from it would be free of the rot that had caused unsustainable stock market speculation in the first place.


    In fact that is something a lot of people (including Barry) have been arguing; rather than artificially holding up the “old world”, let it go and allow it to collapse on its own so a new system arises.








  40. epupo Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 2:25 pm

    “As Eugene Robinson points out in the Washington Post, we’re made of weaker stuff these days. I take it a step further and point to the Baby Boomers as the reason for America’s decline.”


    Calling the American people “a bunch of spoiled brats” is not likely to win many fans for the Democrats or any other political party.


    Furthermore the Baby Boomer generation could be argued as being one that was more liberal in their outlook; the Great Society programs came from the postwar generation of liberals who believed American could do anything.


    The issue people forget about the New Deal and the postwar boom is that the productive capacity of most of the rest of the world was blown to bits by WWII. The “buyers” you speak of came from that loss of production.


    I think the problem for policymakers today is how can you “replicate” that type of buying power is the rest of the world is essentially over-capacity as it stands now, in all sorts of things, real estate being one rather large example.








  41. epupo Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 2:31 pm

    “FDR instituted a program of price supports to stabilize the cycle of farm boom and bust, and we’ve been sticking to that program ever since.”


    He paid farmers to burn oversupply of certain crops to maintain price stability.


    I am all for destroying whole communities of empty houses and starting over rather than trying to force people to buy homes they clearly don’t want. Why doesn’t the government spend billions of dollars to simply destroy many of the homes that were built in the last decade that have little realistic chance of ever being inhabited?








  42. Nuggz Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 3:50 pm

    “Why doesn’t the government spend billions of dollars to simply destroy many of the homes that were built in the last decade that have little realistic chance of ever being inhabited?”


    Nuggz likes this.


    I just shake my head when I see acres of prime farmland get replaced by what some people call “homes”. I call them rat cages, but beauty is in the eye of the beholder I suppose.








  43. rvirmani Says:



    September 7th, 2010 at 5:00 pm

    While the message is correct, the TBTB seem to have planned this. The game is to crash the US Currency. If you allow house prices to fall, you will effectively remove more liquidity from the economy, as more and more households will effectively become underwater. This would further increase defaults, so yeah house prices should fall, but now is the worst possible time. Hence the NYT is now chaninging its tune. When was the last time that rag was on the side of market forces?


    “The purpose of this financial crisis is to take down the U.S. dollar as the stable datum of planetary finance and, in the midst of the resulting confusion, put in its place a Global Monetary Authority [GMA - run directly by international bankers freed of any government control] -a planetary financial control organization”- Bruce Wiseman












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